Support for President Tinubu Falls Sharply, New Poll Shows

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Public opinion on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has shifted sharply negative, with disapproval now leading approval by 17.3 percentage points. According to the latest 2026 data released by data analytics firm Eagle Badger, the gap between those who disapprove and those who approve has nearly tripled since 2025.

The comprehensive tracker highlights mounting economic grievance and a historic fracturing of the President’s traditional geopolitical support bases.

National Picture: Year-on-Year Decline
The data reveals a stark erosion of confidence over the last 12 months. In 2025, the President maintained a competitive, though negative, net rating of -6.2. By May 2026, that net rating plunged to -17.3.

Disapproval rose to 47.5%, up from 43.4% in 2025, while approval dropped to 30.2%, down from 37.2% in 2025. The neutral and “Did Not Respond” category stands at 22.4% total, comprising 18% who chose neither and 4.4% who did not respond.

The intensity of dissatisfaction is particularly acute. The single largest response category nationwide is “Strongly Disapprove” at 33.5%, outpacing “Strongly Approve” at 14.6% by more than a two-to-one margin.

Geopolitical Breakdown: Home Base Fractures
In a major political shift, President Tinubu’s home region, the South West, is no longer a guaranteed stronghold. For the first time, disapproval in the zone has edged ahead of approval, pushing his net rating negative in his primary constituency.

The full regional breakdown for 2026 outlines a tough landscape for the administration:

- South West: 37.0% approval vs 38.9% disapproval, net rating -1.9 

- North East: 39.2% approval vs 40.8% disapproval, net rating -1.6 

- North West: 37.0% approval vs 44.4% disapproval, net rating -7.4 

- North Central: 30.3% approval vs 44.9% disapproval, net rating -14.6 

- South South: 13.5% approval vs 59.8% disapproval, net rating -46.3 

- South East: 16.5% approval vs 62.9% disapproval, net rating -46.4 

While the North East and South West remain highly competitive, the only demographic offering a notable positive net buffer for the President in his home region is the 56+ age group in the South West, which registers a net rating of +18.7%.

Driven by Economic Grievance
According to Eagle Badger’s key signals, the overarching catalyst behind the decline is economic hardship. The data shows a near-linear correlation between household economic conditions and presidential approval across all surveyed categories.

Among respondents who said their personal situation is now “much worse,” 73.2% expressed explicit disapproval of the President. Conversely, among the shrinking cohort who view their circumstances as “somewhat better,” approval stands at 70.7%.

With critical reforms continuing to pressure the cost of living, the numbers reflect a public whose patience with current economic policies is rapidly wearing thin. The Presidency has yet to officially react to the tracker’s findings.