Opinion: Political Commentator Argues South East Risks Repeating 2023 Strategy Ahead of 2027

ABUJA, Nigeria— Political commentator Mohammed Bello Doka has argued that the South East risks missing another opportunity to gain national executive office by pursuing a solo presidential run rather than negotiating within a broader coalition ahead of the 2027 general election.

In an opinion piece published on May 3, 2026, Doka contended that the South East’s most viable path to the presidency in recent cycles came through the vice presidency under Muhammadu Buhari, but said the region declined to support the ticket in sufficient numbers. He said the decision reflected a preference for the presidency over a vice-presidential role, resulting in eight years without representation at the highest levels of government.

Doka said Peter Obi’s decision to contest the 2023 election independently, rather than as part of a united opposition ticket, split the southern vote and contributed to Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s victory. He warned that a similar approach in 2027 could produce the same outcome, either with Tinubu re-elected or Atiku Abubakar emerging as president, while leaving the South East without influence in the next administration.

He criticized what he described as the Obidient movement’s approach to alliance-building, saying it had failed to acknowledge the political structures and resources Atiku Abubakar brought to the opposition. Doka noted that Atiku secured more votes than Obi in 2023 and continues to fund opposition activities, including lobbying and support groups.

The commentator also argued that the North views the South East’s record in national elections with caution, citing the absence of a successful presidential bid or coalition led by an Igbo candidate. He said northern and southwestern political actors may be reluctant to offer the vice presidency to an Igbo candidate in the future if previous offers were rejected.

Doka concluded that strategic patience and coalition politics, rather than solo campaigns, have historically been the route to the presidency for regions that were previously out of power. He said the South East would continue to lose influence unless it reconsidered its approach.

Mohammed Bello Doka is a political commentator based in Nigeria. The views expressed are his own._