Opinion: Framing 2027 Election in Tribal Terms is misleading

A political commentary circulating online has criticized attempts to frame the 2027 presidential election along regional lines, warning that such a strategy could undermine President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid.

The write-up, authored by AbdulAziz Na’ibi Abubakar, responded to a claim by a supporter of Tinubu that the “Arewa” or northern region has historically blocked second terms for southern presidents, citing the 2015 defeat of former President Goodluck Jonathan. 

Abubakar argued that it is politically counterproductive for Tinubu’s allies to advance that narrative, citing several points from the president’s political history. He noted that Tinubu led the opposition coalition that defeated Jonathan in 2015, and that Tinubu spent eight years opposing former President Olusegun Obasanjo, another southerner.

The commentary also highlighted the role of northern voters in Tinubu’s 2023 victory, stating that the region provided his highest vote margins even as he lost in Lagos and Osun states. It added that northern leaders within the All Progressives Congress (APC) stepped aside for Tinubu during the party’s primaries.

Abubakar said that any loss of northern support in 2027 would stem from perceptions of unfulfilled expectations rather than ethnicity. He claimed that the region feels “abandoned and sabotaged” by the current administration and that few tangible benefits have reached the north nearly three years into Tinubu’s term.

The author warned that if the 2027 election becomes a contest defined by region, the advantage could shift to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. He argued that in a scenario with multiple southern candidates against a single northern candidate, Atiku could secure victory by holding the Northwest and Northeast and gaining 25% in several southern states.

Abubakar said he and others had decided to support Atiku in 2027, citing his track record, policy blueprint, and what he described as a “detribalized” approach to leadership. 

“We have decided to support Atiku Abubakar in 2027, not simply because he is from the North, but because of his track record, his blueprint for the country, and his detribalized personality,” he wrote. “We want a leader who will be fair to every region, tribe, and religion.”

The piece comes amid early political maneuvering ahead of the 2027 general elections, as various groups and political blocs begin to outline their positions.