2027 Election: Calls Grow for Power to Return to the North After Years of Southern Rule

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2027 Election: Calls Grow for Power to Return to the North After Years of Southern Rule

A renewed debate over Nigeria’s long-standing zoning arrangement has emerged following an opinion article by political analyst Mohammed Bello Doka, who questioned the fairness of proposals to retain the presidency in Southern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general election.

In the widely circulated piece, Doka argued that the distribution of presidential power since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999 shows an imbalance between the North and the South. According to his analysis, the South would have held the presidency for 18 years by 2027, compared to 10 years for the North.

He based his figures on the tenures of past leaders: Olusegun Obasanjo, who served eight years from 1999 to 2007; Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who governed for about two years before his death in 2010; Goodluck Jonathan, who completed Yar’Adua’s term and served until 2015; Muhammadu Buhari, who held office from 2015 to 2023; and incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose tenure runs from 2023 to 2027.

The zoning system, an informal political arrangement designed to rotate power between the North and South, was introduced by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999 to promote national unity after the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election.

Doka argued that the current push for the presidency to remain in the South in 2027 contradicts the spirit of that agreement. He described the eight-year gap as a “significant imbalance” that should be addressed in the interest of fairness and national cohesion.

He also referenced remarks by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who has similarly questioned which region is “in deficit” when comparing years of leadership under the zoning framework.

The position has drawn opposition. Some political figures, including former lawmaker Shehu Sani, argue that allowing the South-West to complete a potential eight-year tenure under Tinubu would promote political stability and national unity.

The presidency has also responded through presidential adviser Bayo Onanuga, who previously described the North’s shorter tenure as a result of “accidental” circumstances following Yar’Adua’s death rather than a deliberate imbalance in the zoning arrangement.

Analysts note that while zoning is not enshrined in Nigeria’s constitution, it remains a powerful political convention that influences party decisions and electoral strategies.

As political alignments begin to take shape ahead of 2027, the debate over whether zoning should prioritize continuity or recalibration continues to generate strong reactions across the country.